03 Nov Bricks for BRICS
More in line for BRICS
Picture at the 16th summit in October. Ok here you go, from left to right : PM Abiy Ahmed (Ethiopia), President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi (Egypt), President Cyril Ramaphosa (RSA), President Xi Jinping (China), President Vladimir Putin (Russia), PM Narreda Modi (India), President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan(UAE), President Masoud Pezeshkian (Iran), FM Mauro Vieira (Brazil).. pughh thats it .
More in line for BRICS…? Yea seems like it, more than 40 countries are about to jump in that band wagon. But is it good or that would just lower the efficiency of the this multipolar-world-order block?
SO far BRICS are good with…
- Putting away bilateral tension bubble between China vs India , Ethiopia vs Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UEA vs Iran…sure there are more tensions to mention
- Forming structures of multilateralism
- Slowly reducing dependance from the West, shifting from one reserve foreign currency
- Struggle to agree on complicated terms to kick the de-dollarisation process; agree on one currency and roll in to the needed steps
- Spur the growth of bilateral local currency arrangements, but not agreed yet to simplify the trade
- Game-changing initiative at stake, provided more likely by Beijing
- Giving more sovereignty to colonial-dominated counties
“We are not building the block against someone…”— Putin
“We are keen to look for bilateral ties that will benefit all — countries inside the block and those who outside.”— Putin
Well sounded nice and trade-friendly …Whats on the agenda ?
Discussed at the recent summit 2024:
- Export development ideas
- Taxation within the BRICS
- Diversify the economic trade
- Mineral extractions
- Transport connection between countries
- Early warming system for mass disease outbreaks
- Promote green development
- Give a voice to the global south
- Coordination of athletic tournaments
The round table in plus/outreach format with guests: non-BRICS countries and UN General Consul :
- Ideas they have about the bloc
- The will to participate or develop ties with the bloc
- Call on the global issues and military disputes
- Ideas to solve economic and geopolitical crisis
- Global standards. With what BRICS should work and look at
- Own profile — development and carrying on projects
UN General Council noticed:
- Issues with financial system — reserve foreign currency: Old and not fair
- Climate change concerns. Every county is willing to lower temperature at least by 1 degree
…’All need to lower their emissions of CO2 (carbon dioxide gas)’
And this is quite controversial as it directly linked to industrial power development so they might just look for ways to use other techniques in burning coal or somehow “blanket” emission.
- AI concerns (artificial inteligence)
- To make Peace. Treaty and diplomatic approach
So WHAT FOR and Whats on the table Now
“WHY?” ” WHAT FOR?” ” HOW IT GOES?”…”WOULD IT WORK?”
Many people, average dwellers to the top level state figures, tickle the question:
B.R.I.C.S.? Ok, but WHAT FOR ?: To play on trading strings? Or just happened due to growing dissatisfaction with the Western World Order?
This unit is mooted for lots of folks; Huh? Respective Global players fit under a one roof? WHAT? HOW COME? Is it WORKS? Stick in here their different cultural, traditional, historical profiles, then would it be possible to even think of mixing them all together? Having so much contrast in social and cultural value; Look at their flags, putting them together already is a bit of a mess. Would you think? Haven’t look at it yet? Ah then it might seem like a rainbow to you: colours, forms, symbols, size — all yells “This is a TOTAL F*up ..er mismatch”.
For about 15 years it proves to be working, managing their bilateral, geopolitical tensions.
But STILL…What is this grouping for? The Unit, as an economic block was created in 2009, somewhen in that decade — first pictures and videos mostly from 2009 year — the second year of Putin as a Premier Minister of Russia while trying to solve economic recession after war in Georgia (August 2008 , lasted for a week or so), Obama’s presidency (about to sign a legendary Obamacare project, which came on 2010 and still rolling), and…well, enough for the story part. The main idea to create that block with powerful states on its own is to multidimensional cooperation, maintain a good dynamic of the trade between nations avoiding involvement of third parties , indirectly (a Western influence), — use of SWIFT system+Dollar or Euro as a reserve foreign currency for trade. So I would say BRICS was made for both, to improve trade relationship and cut off links with third actors when doing businesses; Dependance on the Western system and tools was ideally had to come to ZERO, at some point. But to 2024 it’s not done yet, some Western tool are still in use and limit the trade process of those who was sanctioned by the West.
Behind the scene all knew — political figures and news-watching folks — that domination of greens [dollar] would lead counties to the total puppeteer dreadful abuse, where the US would have in hand all those strings to control, guide, and destroy. Shouty indeed, who would want to look upon this ‘tomorrow’ for own country.
No wonder DE-DOLLARISATION is on the table now.
To some sense they — BRICS members — could talk over creating own block chain and own their SWIFT system. Since all the players, that joined in, felt this scrutiny with monetary financial system, and very politicised matter under one foreign currency — dollar. BRICS representatives have promoted transactions in domestic currencies, what they are practicing now but it also cause tricky bits; the conversion between two currencies, both are very shaky and could even change stoutly in value, just by day.
Stop using Dollar? Cool ! NICE! Good idea… With what to start then?
Well, there is a lot at stake.
Steps to take?
To stop using dollar sounds rebellious, courageous and freeing , like in a moment could open a door, making a house party with your friends without telling your parents. But all comes to ‘what’s after party?‘ .
The US dollar as the reserve currency was playing a big role in the trading system since the post-WWII time, and replacing it now would cause a big mess, big chaos that only a big export running country could stand off. Without respective alliances and trust-worthy partners to cut on dollar as a reserve foreign exchange would put your in…, er in trap of limited export, bankruptcy of state businesses, blocking import, freeze international investment, and non-stop money borrower state at best –and at worst TOTAL FAIL drifting on bits of economy; big national debt, bankruptcy of banks, disastrous inflation. famine, and colonisation of all state resources.
No one wants and able to take a such step, or steps, on its own, and the US with that ‘stay beside us and you would bring da bacon home’ idea seemed quite friendly to many. But time showed — reserve currency is a big power that US used to persuade and lower — more of a fist in a face all economies who ever dare dismiss their political and even social order.
Remark: no secret the coins were the first tool to let senate, peasants, solders , plebeians, servi* know who is the boss here.
SO WHAT IS or ARE THOSE STEPS …
Make a currency to unify economically and geographically such diverse members is a heck of a work. Rely on the value of something that no one, in the pot, would be able to control, like gold? Maybe . But after all, there is a need of all countries to agree on chosen currency, and with more players in a game — that we might see to join in soon — it might be more complicated and nearly impossible.
Sure, all the BRICS members are up for a new BRICS currency but first need to pass…:
- Required interrogation. Quite broad in meaning but it tackles financial institutions of all BRICS members.
- To what level BRICS countries are interested in opening and sharing economic power with one another. And here we are more picking on the most advance economies with lesser ones, like China with ….well there are many in the block that cant show off in front of China, including Russia.
- Bringing members central banks together, credit agencies together, stock markets together…ALL TOGETHER — sweet but clock biding.
Some were wondering if BRICS would push all to use Ruble or Yuan ? But so far how stable are those currencies?… Quite volatile and dodgy to rely on for other countries in the bloc.
That so far was the road blocker, knowing no currency could survive a one step further made many observers remain sceptical about de-dollarisation and ever shatter their dependence on the western side.
*Servi – slaves, low-class children, and other people that were prisoners and underclass in ancient Rome.
Changing the world order
Would it change the world as we know it.? Seeking for the better return on the green bucks many countries are still in turns of the total dependance on the foreign currency — some are into bringing this dependance back , ‘hello Argentina!’ — and therefore they could be totally sabotaged by the movement of the foreign currency and the speculations at any time for not favouring the Uncle Sam and him saying.
HOORAY, fortune favours the bold, or in this case, the most patient, bit like with the Lao’s character, looking at attempts to work on feasible punch to reduce politics in trade. Now with BRICS countries might frame more alternatives to a classic financial system and the policies. So, thanks to BRICS?…
Its Happening! And so what?
Whatever form it takes , with BRICS or without it, the de- dollarisation is happening; The dollar’s share of global foreign reserves is at its lowest of the 21st century. The countries minimising the use of a dollar, and so that, as all would expect, creates major tensions EVERYWHERE.
This time Western sanctions seem to hit a new page: blocking , terminating , freezing accounts, canceling cultures. ALL AT ONCE ? Yeah, HUGE mistake. Missing out the fact — you have no control of those who has nothing to lose. By their hands they opened like a ‘pandora box’ for different counties to find mutual interests — a mutual enemy that cut them off from the rest. What they would do next? Um, easily guessed, more likely to put hands on “untouchable currency”, kick off a new chapter in shredding the value of Washington greens.
Well if you hold on to greens don’t worry. Underpin the foreign economy, changing the World Order, up to 2024 dollar remain in its dominance, but with a new alternatives at stake, offered by…by BRICS members.
WORLD ORDER BY BRICS?
BRICS is an anti-western coalition? Was made as an alternative? Meant to improve trading relationships?
What countries think of BRICS? Like Malaysia and other countries who want to spur there small and big businesses in India, China, Russia, South Africa, and Brazil… Its obvious ,the unit, as they think, would give them an access to market, access to capitals, access to innovation and a systematic shift to more uprising population, basically what they saw in the West when entering their market. NOW ITS A NEW ORDER. And they are right, BRICS has big investment projects and planing to do way more, promising future for trade, an effective alternative to any partnership they have now. But there are big cons, down sides to enter this membership, which would be mentioned in a sec…
From not so formal and loose organisation to the most prominent!… Or to a bigger paper tiger?
Why not to join?
With more players in the bloc it risking to become a paper tiger as many experts put on plate.
The Unit is recently extended their membership, inviting to join:
Arab republic of Egypt, Federal Democratic republic of Ethiopia, Islamic republic of Iran , The kingdom of Sudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Ok they are in to ‘build the unit of developed countries solidarity‘… How effective is it tho?
Besides the needed boost and stimulating investment in huge markets like China, India, bloc has its holding grip to what some are still hesitant to join, like Indonesia with their 3rd or now 2nd most populated country in the World. And so the prime candidate is not on in the Q ? HOW COME?
Well they know certain calculations are must be made before joining the bloc; Put here in the bucket the bloc’s ideological position, the perception of the antitrust coalition … For many bloc members, China is at the wheel, which means to risk some business investments or give up some territory — the Indo islands, like Batam is targeted by China for *mining , at no time — and therefore the neutral position for Indonesia is the way to run businesses smoothly and somewhat peacefully guarding their land from destructive mining projects, at least for now.
Investments and territorial integrity is at the core of concerns to join any bloc, but countries might be also just holding on to pick the right partners in this super power rivalries.
To shift all their axis, and once and for all, the alternative for Indonesia, if to join any bloc would be OECD ( the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development). Well, thats how many experts in trade say. The 2027 could be the year for them to pile heads on the OCED bloc with other Western nations. So they not in a hurry. Kind of the opposite: they sit and wait, and not to run and catch.
China’s domination in BRICS remain bitterish, causing some consternation within the grouping itself. So like jumping in the band wagon with one driver who decides where to go to — quite interesting but worrying if your interests are even tackled . This indeed, could inflict many internal disagreements, internal tensions, which could cause BRICS to crumble. Make sense why some don’t see a big future of that unit but only time would tell.
SO far they doing well, get on the nerves of Western allies, other blocs, units,…. Well, again I would hold my horses to open champagne — put it on semi bottle opener mode — , let’s see how it goes first with their new projects and de-dollarisation.
*Indonesia is a largest producer of nickel: about 30 or even 40+ % the world supply. Nickel is essential for an electric power, so no wonder hands are rising from Beijing and Washington to deal with Indonesians.
HOW effective is it
Classic thought of “too diverse, hard to deal with”, sure but It was meant to be diverse, and as for India’s PM, the strength of the bloc : diversify traditional trade relationship.
WHAT BOTHERS :
Skeptics creeps on what BRICS want to do?
+ true settlement systems on the currency
+ more members to broad agenda and objectives or doing so they are risking to lose control over the first matters: currency settlement.
For now , pard my brief scan, BRICS is an economic group, just outside of EU and North America. To build a bigger picture to it, to add some glue between the bricks we need to know what initiatives at place. Is there a common trading currency among BRICS? Without new ideas — not necessarily innovative but new —and initiatives BRICS has not much to offer to the world.
Accepting more members how credible it would become? It could tackle more and more issues, become slow-reacting to any economic change. Oh well, one thing is at least clear — more and more counties are up to a ‘fresh’ WORLD ORDER. But if taking the BRICS as a main economic bloc for trade in a near future, then dilemma on currency should be solved soon, and it’s still unknown how much integration is required by each state, and what is more crucial, how much China is open to integrate its economy with others.
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