25 Nov Hands on nukes?
"He is bluffing!"
That casual talk in da bar between…whoever you might think off. Political figures, folks,…
Who is up to push that button first?
This topic is now like the one to have with your friends like a casual chat while betting on whose football team wins in coming-up match. So if you still wonder where this weapon rhetoric is going, you are not alone. This is a back-and-forth, red-line testing topic, where “bluffing” would plead as a FIASCO move for all, no way back, like carrying a fired candlestick inside the mine. To me it would turn to a real “Battle ship” game at your garden… With more than two players in the control room. Only hope not many rookies behind it.
Cost of words playing a big role here, which is not the most firmed… stamped…glue-di-dah matter : you said it, you took it back. Easy peasy. Many have that “words don’t matter” idea. All change with time, leaders, circumstances, year seasons; words can be taken back anytime; just find a barrel to blame. ‘ We’ll make them pay….’, ‘ Nah I didn’t say that…never, ever ever ‘. How many turned their words and came back with “Dindu noffin” type of flip, join-in the once-hatred team…Pity to watch, but this is like an everyday thing, just saying.
How this is taken by people
‘The lesser you know, the tighter you sleep’ this Russian aphorism goes well here. For many, it seems like, they should know a little otherwise ‘no panic its organic’ would be the case to calm them down. In Russia , Europe, China, USA, people don’t want to heavy-thinking of wars and political turns and rather enjoy whats on tv tonight — sports, movies, tv-shows…
Some awakening, or how would you call a jaw-dropping moment, comes when the currency exchange rate fall, your passport limit your travel, your bank cards are not accepted, tickets or gas prices leave you empty pocketer. This is a classic conflict’s follow up, whoever lived in countries like Russia, China, Iran, Japan, USA, …know how stressful it is, from simple to more, um to collateral flip, like changing your preferences in grocery store to your whole lifestyle; Prices rise = we turn to cheaper goods + saving more+ canceling fun + …Well, ok for some this is a sign to start buying before all goes goofy-roofy, up to the roof. Would take for chance groceries, in Russia: toilet paper, salt, sugar, are those items to buy when someone rounded the gossip about tomorrow’s ripping cost. Quite funny, guess many believe that sugar and toilet paper would help ’em to pass the whatever times they think of…Maybe they know something what I don’t. At least, that list of items, Gayetty* would agree.
Yes, not all the countries that I listed go thorough that blank of change. This might kicked off the Western mentality — as what many on the East agreed on — ‘we rule’ and ‘no-things-would-go-wrong-with-us’ in big contrast to ‘we fight to survive’ and ‘huh, banned again?Ok’ folks living in Russia, Iran, or North Korea — 
scuzi, thats my zone — who used to this ‘ban’ from system, also called as a world order; random access-denied from social media; complicated travel routes (longer and more expensive); money value falls; blocked the entrance to summits, events, and so forth.
To BOLD the “travel” topic that happened to be the most noticed, if I may say — sudden and complicated. Noticed through lots of ways, including making visas, handle visa rejections, failing to save on travel tickets, and overall having an idea that for every pin on my map I need to do visa first and carry my passport around, now looks like a sandpaper!
How this is taken by people ( part 2): ‘Got your dollar when it costed 30 Rub? FML I want to be you!”
Quick Note: For a year of 2024 -2025 $1 = about 100 Rubles.
In Russia and all the sanctioned countries so many clichés and funny memes with currency that I would need to make a separate post for this.
turbulent past, count the recent past in 20s century, like in Russia, the news on politics are now highly discussed between folks at work, in bus, in the gym, on the beach– the beach? What? Huh, yeah there are beaches, including 50+ Islands…You got the idea — the topic foothold in most random places with a negative premise: ‘who put him/her on that “chair”*…what a joke’, ‘ never cared, now go on about patriotism…huh’, ‘ Huh, keeping low pensions and say ‘blah blah your kids should help you’, cool story’, ‘they must stop this ripping-off inflation…’, ‘ WTF! Playing cards with a budget for…’.
After this, ‘ lesser know, happier you are’ explains a lot — all grumpy faces in the crowd…A sign of high IQ? Errr
*Joseph Gayetty — known as toilet paper invented, in 20s century 1st
aka "Unthinkable" is happening?
Some plans stay as plans …or not?
Remember 1945? Well, same as you, I was born way after that, otherwise this would be my moment of fame, bringing some personal life stories in here…Would be more interesting to read. But documents is my kind of kite here to surf on.
The Unthinkable plan, filed as a secret plan of WWII, ‘assembled’ by “Big Four” forces * approved by…er, left a very controversial trail of why they were working on this plan, how others didn’t join it, and what had happened with this plan after…
Was the boomerang effect they feared?
Or it was the letter of one that put a lock on this plan?… phhh, talking about that letter to Winston,’ …we’re your allies and in it to victory by your side, you must never get the idea that we’re in it just to help you hang on to your archaic, medieval empire’ (Roosevelt in 1945). Some were just taking off the sweat “oh good, thats not happening” the next they realised — all is still possible and guests are not leaving the party yet. But, Roosevelt died in April that year and, well I don’t know about you but I could imagine a hazy grimace of UK PM; With the new man, the ‘nuke man’, Harry Truman, Churchill easily could try his luck to bring his X plan back… But first, as history shows, bombs had to go to Japan .When they thought of dusting Soviets ?…Who the heck knows…Or you know???
Some experts might find dates and think of possible ones, although there are many made-up stores, after spending days orchestrating the WWII papers. The plan was real, without a date tho.
Ok, I pulled away in a tiny bit from the “plan” itself that was also called as Armageddon. Key point was to attack the Soviet Empire, blah blah blah defeat them, and by any mean, get Stalin on his knees…: USSR would give up all western territories and leave the rest to the UK... Sounded very like a copy-cat this secret documents. Classic form of any after-war term, as I see it : Former allies were now fighting for superiority in Europe and Asia, which some of them, and precisely the UK, tried to pursue through Afghan wars, Opium wars, India’s colonisation,…
Did someone elbow out this plan?
Passing this into 21st century this “Operation Unthinkable” plan for average folks in Russia, USA, or in Europe is now seen as smth that fail to happen, a piece of history that somewhere dusting in the shelves of “declassified” files. But for experts in geopolitics, this plan has never been so real as for today. Something that could be brought back, rhetorically used as ‘hey we actually has this plan’ , another reason why am I talking about it now. The case is binnacle when looking at disputes and countless disagreements on territorial integrities and deficit in energy resources.
As an example with that plan, when Roosevelt died, a red-button-pressing Truman, apparently a player poker, it become very doable to stack all chips on Churchill’s ‘All-In’ bet.
But again, luckily nothing unthinkable happened, well nothing THAT UNTHINKABLE after August 1945, and guess here thanks to, um diplomacy?!…Same case with Caribbean crisis (1962) when we were all on the edge of nuclear war. Will we have this kind of ‘saving lives’ diplomacy now? Hard to say…
Squeeze out some peace
How often we hear about some kind of peace and whatsoever victory plan that has NO concrete terms: where this “demilitarisation” or “potential threat” lies… Unfortunately, with time — and one week is a long time in politics — the red lines and other gates for peace deal just fade, or at least tagged as ‘outdated’, ‘not real’, and rather adding more filler of issues and figures in the field that just there to stop you from ink-stamp any deal.
I might get this habit of always lining disputes altogether, with standard geopolitical way of thinking, sorry for that.
Not being too pessimistic there are ways and leaders that are keen to engage and propose a both-sides solution. But how effective are they?
Voice of a peace? Who would be up for it?
Well, distantly many, who raised and still raising their voices to offer ‘their ground for round’… ahem, round table. But this nice gesture usually doest not pass further a gentle smirk or an eye-wink.
All comes to …Well, ask who would be first to agree for peace talk. Look at it in purity: who is fighting for what?; For who an escalation is only way to retreat/regain territories; Who was more successful with their strategies so far? ; Supported/allied with who?; How ‘peace’ rhetoric is used from both sides?… To me that would be the main questions to draw on bigger picture when this peace talk might happen . Yeah, quite complex, and sure all of this, could be bias. Another challenge — to scoop on potential moves and position of each side on the case, allied forces including.
No Comments