21 Sep Mind the Gap: Birth rate
2023 is the Worst year...
Heard about…um, birth rate concern? … lack of replacement? … childfree trend?…ripping cost of big cities? So, eh, nothing? Where do you live? In some bunker or on the North Sentinel Island ?
All related to bouncing terms on birth rate.
Precisely stressing on the most baby-boom places, back in 60s all the way to 90s, what are they going through that they thought solve it quietly, if not the raptured decline in own human resources entering the new era of AI technologies and geopolitical tensions. Not able to alter another narrative to cut the worrying and concerning one off, that media keep fostering, or dragging on: “Marriage rates declined”, “Women quit on family planing”, “Bankruptcy of wedding salons”, “One kid per women is a dream”, “On every woman there is -0,0001…% for a child”, and on.
Narrative that goes on plummeting any chances to get back on booming birth rate, that was once and still is, and will be the key to turn county’s GDP into fast-pace growing power over others, supplying and trading with the rest of the world. But how ironic, if to look at every fast-growing power in history, with growth other ‘stopping’ factors always come along to trap everyone in a gap of basic choices and preferences…ugh sounded a bit philosophical.
What else I must say before highlighting the mean of banal high cost of living; blistering matters with non-stop rivalry at school…at job… All goest to the terrible business culture, as some say. Pff, how and why it’s started tho? — ok, ok might be very logical, with such slapping jump in economy — but what even more bothering its not getting any better; many people in different areas and government going circles about it, rounding more and more issues to it, like some pancake layers, stoking the housing cost to ‘ease’ lives of young adults.
In South Korea, for instance, they thought — now fully working on — to run “changing the business culture” projects of … the drums go on — making a new capital ! ‘ Whoop Whoop ! What? Thats not what you wanted?’. Idea is to spread people and not make Seoul even more overpopulated — its already like a tight meat can, where its almost “no deal” talking to cut the cost on housing.
What is the corporate culture ? In short I might only show how it looks like…in believe — “wear suit, life is good” seems like it.
but, here comes “but”
In the end, wearing suit you are more likely to think of simple needs, and… a way to escape form everyone.
Family planing? What for?
“Family planing”, might not be on the list anymore, for those in their 20s up to 40s age group residents, living in the most high tech cities. WHY ? After bolding the main cause of it, I will put it simple — no one wants to fail, work from payroll to payroll. Rather enjoy life when they can “live like there is no tomorrow” kind of thing.
‘You must fit in’ is an idea that grows within. Somewhere more somewhere less. But in many Asian countries, it goes to extreme, with no other chance but to fight for you place. If you stepped out (drop-off school, got fired, rejected)…oh if you dared to stepped out, you would be replaced quickly. It’s a real nightmare for them. All coz, there is no guarantee in anything till you cement your position in corporate job: thats been hired and champ in a few of your projects.
“Big city — big cost, big loss”. Live in comfort here is no longer means to have a family, more of to have a corporate job and couple of big names in your business network.
Seeign such a BILLs-to-pay list you more likely would keep your solo going. Um, for..for life
To afford a family, if to be more precise, you must count…: wear, all tech devices (phone, computers), sports (gym or other sessions off your taste), medical spendings — on top of it you pay for kindergarten, then school, then additional courses, meanwhile stressing out that there is no guarantee for your kid to find the ‘spot’ you wished for him/her. Yeah, to see your kid, in the end, having a high-paid job, become successful, and have a happy life. Well, I put this 3 desired results in one phrase, lots of folks consider it as a sequence: high wage — more respect –less stress — happy life! Here we see that all about fiscal factor; what you can afford means how happy you are. Ahh, if only it would be like that. In reality one does not bring another, but it surely feels thats the case, at least in big cities, coz people cant see another scenario for life, if they keen to stay in the cap. city.
It’s hard to step out, thinking if you do it — quit the race, chose your own trail — you would face more struggles, and plus, anxiety builds on knowing there will be no turn back.
* Some numbers :
Housing in Seoul – to rent : roughly form KRW 500,000 ( $ 430) to KRW 1 million ( $ 850) per month … and higher.
Housing in Moscow – to rent: roughly would be about the same as in Seoul but for more square meters, basically, in Moscow its cheaper.
Tuition & Fees (2024-2025) in Seoul for the School year –
From PK3, PK4 and Kindergarten, from 1st up to 12th Grade
from KRW 16,500.000 ($12,200.00) to KRW 25,000. 000 ($18,400.00) plus there are some additional cost which include some counted tuition $9900
In some South Korea’s international schools education cost from $15,000 to $30,000 per year for primary, middle and secondary schools
Open to Debate
Now to you. What would you chose?:
To have a kid, because your government tells you, to raise the birth rate and help country’s future economy — while doubting that your country does care how you would raise your kids, what education they would get, or how lovely your family would be if a high-cost on living would cover all the child-care subsidies.
Or to have a kid, because you might be subjected to higher taxes ( in some places for childfree) and feel neglected from the society as you are shrug off family values.
Or to have a kid, because you want to care about another being, know and can afford a good life for your kid, to have a piece of you to pass everything you have and learned in your life to watch him succeed.
Let me guess, you picked the last one… Ironically for country leaders the last one was and is ‘achieved by default’; moral principal, basic instinct that comes up by itself and no need to be focused on “to afford” or “give your kid a good life” point. Well definitely wasn’t the point to doubt, back in the days, when women had no other choice but to marry and have kids (even without marrying); as for the first, the society was pressing you to marry ( parents and coworkers), unmarried woman had no prospects in life; and as for the second, there was no “family planing” methods to prevent pregnancy like birth control pills and other.
And what we have now ? A different case — “basic instinct” is proved to be easily suppressed with daily struggles in high rivalry environment, non stop anxiety for tomorrow when emptying your wallet paying for your housing and life essentials, and busy reaching so-called life success — money making.
So how modern style of women — business women — are seen in the East? Well this one particular example in Russian. Huh you doubt ? Witness this scene myself so you cant bet me on it, this is how it really goes!
Many women, including me, asking themselves: Do I want to live in that stress, thinking how to pay my living cost and then support financially my kid…on top of that, not certain with “marriage” status. Living in financially top-up cities, where they pay a high-wage, they expect you to afford ‘making a family’, but frankly, you might cross a threshold right into a daily debate of what to spend money on: pay for housing ( chose a cheaper area or in a city centre ), pay for gas or take more for a food, or save for child-care, or sneak a bit from your moneybank for holidays, and travel, and so on… Well, roughly, holidays are usually not even counted.
So the tendency of postponing or completely wax-sealed the idea of making a family, is keep raising its popularity among young adults. And THATS NOT CHANGING so far, in a positive course regardless state’s “meet your match” projects, including dating apps.
All the skyscraper cities are beating its own pity low birth record year after year, but top chairs are still question ” What are or if there is a one reason for people to stop having babies?” ” Why they don’t want to make families?”. Oh really why, WHY?… um yeah, not seeing a HUGE HIPPO in a room, then you must be out of this planet…or just have a spotless life, and not need to bother about other.
Huh, so go with: “What bothers others? WHO da f*ck to care”. Those who had this motto usually did’t go far,…but exceptions happen, some of them did lived till 100 😀
"Immigration" to fill the gap
Ahh this topic comes to the table almost in every office…but more often EU parliament, UK, US, Canada, Russia, Japan…
With a fewer workers and a fewer companies, public debt, mounting pensions to pay,…um what else? Anyway, with all that have been mentioned, where are we heading to? Picking EU and counties like Japan, South Korea, China, Russia, and so forth. No secret — well no longer a secret — Asian cities are going through “replacement” issues, nonstop searching for ways to lower stress in the government. Recently heard that Japan pushed its pension age to 70, and so other countries might follow it soon…sooner than you think.
Here comes the question: Why to not bring others, from outside ? To fill the gap of low birth rate. Ok, not all but qualified foreigners; ease the visa process for skilled workers that will contribute to the country and possibly grow their family here.
Again if taking Japan, they were stubbornly closed country in 20s century, for any immigration, not welcoming any ‘none made in Japan’ boot on their soil, with whatever skills and top-school diplomas. Make sense, when you look at their blue-print for future: build their own closed empire, with their own money, goods, business that work only for export. They planned to trade, mostly, for export. Creating the bubble they fail to count all outside factors that crashed it,…um smashed it all to pieces, and faced a HUGE MESS in 1989, that gives them a headache still.
here more on “huge mess”.
Now big countries, those who learned on Japan’s mistakes or suffered by their own, are more opened to “new comers”. And not like because they become nicer to foreigners, only in regard to ways finding potential ‘pension’ sponsors. But it’s still unknown, how effective it would be; it’s known, every foreigner should spend more than they receive to really help the economy. And how this “welcome” immigrants would fix state’s demography. Always pros and cons to it, including constant work reasserting state’s deterrence and security, the conflict of cultures and nationalities might be pulled within.
Ways to make it up
Mother Capital or child-care subsidies
Hungary spends 5 % their GDP annually on such programs (subsidies program). As well as Russia, that every year increasing ( by some %) the bill for a new born child — called as a mother’s capital –, and making more and more projects to support motherhood.
All those programs are somewhat effective, but surely there are more women that delaying their motherhood worldwide. Doing so, with short-term family bond and some health issues they might end up having fewer more children than desired, desired by them, or precisely, by their government.
Also comes down to perspectives on life for woman with a kid in a big city. For a single mother it doubles the stress.
In modern times with all the gadgets, media info “spoilers” about the real success — money making and having a comfort life — women doubt her values in a motherhood and with a choice of postponing “giving birth” we as women see the way to make more out of our lives while we can on our own; having jobs, be able to afford living cost in big cities , enjoy our free time, and take care of ourself, feel more independent, have a partner but not depend on him, discover world, and educate ourselves.
Meanwhile the thoughts and pressure from the society towards women in their 20 to 40 are always there, particularly in Russia, Middle Eastern and Asian countries. Im one of them, among those women that are looked at with a flecky eye, questioning “why the hell are you not having kids yet? “.
Stretching the Gap
Putting this tick tuck bomb, asking very uncomfortable questions, how long can we go with stretching the gap between birth and death rate? Indeed, there are some facts to be optimistic to all, with those new projects and … the same time that optimism should only go too far to the first world’s concerning factor, like war and geopolitical conflicts, directly affecting birth rate covering the mean of all economy rising projects.
Yeah see who would think that for baby-boom countries like Japan or China the birth rate in this decade (2020 – 2030)would be deeply concerning issue to consider, but time showed, they now working to meet the needed replacement rate in a few years. Seemingly copious weight to do smth with the national’s replacement, or they will scoop their way out with robots? I am not so optimistic about it, nor should anyone be.
P.s
In some statistics, — I didn’t do it — it was estimated about 30 % of Japanese people would remain single for their whole lives …To me I think it wold be more than 30%, THEY HAVE ROBOTS!
Pity but this is directly affect babyboom in an opposite direction …to NONE : Its a still taboo to have a kid outside of wed-lock. Only about 2 % is born outside of marriage in Japan whereas .. um, not sure who and how it was counted, but 30% an 50% kids are born outside wed-lock in USA. In Russia it would be about the same or a bit less than in the US.
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